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In my post game analysis article, some of the readers of our site brought up some great points as to why our team is struggling. A few pointed towards our coaching staff and a few pointed towards personnel. Overall, the two go hand in hand. But after some research, if you really want to know why this team is struggling just take a look at the 2008 and 2009 recruiting classes. The 2008 class would be this year’s 5th year seniors while the 2009 class is either 4th year seniors or 4th year juniors.
For the purpose of this article, we’re going to remove the coaching aspect and just look at recruiting. Our 2008 class was 31 players full. It was one of our most highly regarded classes and one that featured a lot of depth at key positions. Overall, it was supposed to be a great class yet this group was extremely hit or miss. To simplify it, I broke this recruiting class down into stars, contributors, and non-contributors. Here’s how the 2008 class fared.
Stars: WR Jarrett Boykin, WR Marcus Davis, WR Dyrell Roberts, LB Bruce Taylor, RB Ryan Williams
Contributors: OT Nick Becton, WR DJ Coles, TE Randall Dunn, LB Jeron Gouveia Winslow, RB Tony Gregory, LB Lyndell Gibson, DT Antoine Hopkins, TE Eric Martin, OT Vinston Painter, OT Michael Via, FS Eddie Whitley
Non-Contributors: WR Ben Barber, WR Xavier Boyce, QB JuJu Clayton, WR Austin Fuller, DE Isaiah Hamlette, LB Jake Johnson, DE Joe Jones, DE Leon Mackey, WR Derrick McCoy, LB Quillie Odom, ATH Kendrick Presley, DB Peter Rose, LB Allen Stephens, DT Dwight Tucker, DB Lorenzo Williams.
Whenever you go back and analyze a past recruiting class, you never want that bottom group to be bigger than either of two top groups. In this class of 31, 15 of those recruits never made an impact. Nearly 50-percent. Of course, that is used a little lightly in this case. JuJu was our backup for a year, Boyce did play sparingly as a freshman, Hamlette saw some snaps, Jake Johnson was a starter for a few games, and Tucker saw some snaps. But none of those guys stayed through graduation and remained a part of the team.
Even if you take the contributors of that class, most of those guys didn’t contribute until late in their careers. Becton has been a career backup until this season, same with Painter. Gregory has been injured most of his career, Dunn has been slow to develop, and Coles spent the first two years of his career buried on the depth chart. Now, he’s out for the season to rehab his knee further.
What was once thought to be a great haul for the Hokies has turned into a rather lackluster class. Yes, Ryan Williams was great and Bruce Taylor, when healthy, rivals Vince Hall for the title of best linebacker since 2000. But, a recruiting class should produce stars and depth. This one was very light on both.
For comparison’s sake, here’s how our 2009 class turned out.
Stars: QB Logan Thomas, RB David Wilson, DE James Gayle, DB Jayron Hosley,
Contributors: LB Tariq Edwards, WR DJ Coles (part of both 2008 and 2009 class), RB Tony Gregory (part of both 2008 and 2009 class), DE J.R. Collins, DB Antone Exum, K Cody Journell, OC Andrew Miller, TE Duan Perez-Means, OG David Wang, DE Tyrel Wilson
Non-Contributors: LB Telvion Clark, TE Tyrell Edwards, OL Kory Gough, DB James Hopper, DB Theron Norman, RB Nubian Peak, DT DeAntre Rhodes, DB Jerrodd Williams
The 2009 class possessed better overall balance. We had better “stars” and our contributors are also a stouter group than in 2008. Out of 22 commits in 2009, 14 of them went on to become either contributors or stars. That is a success rate of 64%, which is a solid rate in recruiting.
That 2009 class held up the end of its bargain but really our two biggest disappointments as far as recruiting classes go has to be 2008 and 2010. 2008 was a spectacular class with 31 recruits. We received a lot of commitments from guys our coaches liked but only a handful of them panned out like we thought.
In 2010, we recruited a lot smaller number with 19 total commitments. How did that class rate? See below.
Stars: CB Kyle Fuller, DT Derrick Hopkins
Contributors: OG Matt Arkema, DB Detrick Bonner, OC Caleb Farris, OG Laurence Gibson, QB Mark Leal, DL Zack McCray, OT Mark Shuman, DE Justin Taylor, LB Chase Williams
Non-Contributors: OL Nick Acree, DB Nick Dew, LB Brian Laiti, TE Jerome Lewis, DB Theron Norman, LB Dominique Patterson, WR E.L. Smiling, QB Ricardo Young.
The biggest problem with the 2010 class wasn’t depth; it was the lack of star power. These three classes that I have highlighted makes up our team from our redshirt sophomore class up to our 5th year senior class. The amount of non-contributors that I have highlighted is concerning although it’s not unusual for a recruiting class to have at least 30% of the class never play a down.
For Virginia Tech, who prides itself on player development, these three classes were disappointing in a lot of ways. 2009 wasn’t as bad but 2008 and 2010 were abysmal.
Just look at the secondary players who never quite made it in Blacksburg.
2008: Kendrick Presley, Petter Rose, Lorenzo Williams
2009: James Hopper, Theron Norman, Nubian Peak, Jerrodd Williams
2010: Nick Dew
Eight busts is a lot for a program to overcome in a three year span. Of course, two of those guys were recruited as athletes (Peak and Presley) but both would probably have been moved to defense.
Overall, these three classes have provided us with some star players (Ryan Williams, David Wilson, Logan Thomas, James Gayle, Jayron Hosley, etc) but we’ve had a lot of misses. This leads to more of your 2011 and 2012 classes playing before they should and it affects a team in numerous ways.
What bothers me most about these three recruiting classes is that some players left without a need to. Yes, Jake Johnson struggled as a backer but had he stayed he could have continued to be a key role player. Telvion Clark is another player I wish we could have retained, even though he violated Virginia Tech’s so many strikes and you’re out policy.
There’s a lot of talent that never played a down for one reason or another that could have been an asset on our team this season. To me, every problem you have in college football can be traced back to recruiting. It’s the lifeblood of your program. If recruiting falters, you’re on the field performance falters. Do you think Nick Saban could have taken these three classes to a National Title? No. Not even his highly paid staff at Alabama could win 14 games with this group.
Virginia Tech needs to bring in a higher caliber prospect and surround them with quality role players. Not everybody we recruit needs to be a highly touted, extremely highly rated prospect. But, finding guys who are going to stay here and work hard throughout their entire career is a must. Busts happen and players do transfer and leave occasionally. But Tech is currently at a low point for star power. Logan Thomas is our most well known resource but he has played poorly this season. Kyle Fuller on defense hasn't been much better. Our 2007 defensive unit with Vince Hall, Xavier Adibi, Macho Harris, Brandon Flowers, and Chris Ellis had more playmakers on one single unit than our entire team here in 2012. That's a major concern going forward this season. At this point, players need to step up and make a name for themselves. We'll just have to wait and see if any of them do.
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{ 14 comments… read them below or add one }
I agree Justin, but recently we’ve just started to pickup on recruiting, but I know Foster’s defense is hard to get, but why doesn’t he simplify to the players and then turn it up the next year after they have played. We use to recruit balanced DB’s like Macho Harris and Brandon Flowers or atleast that’s my opinion anyway, I know Kendall Fuller is going to be a great player here, but we need more Db’s who are willing to come up and make a hit I’m not saying Kyle or Bonner, or Jarrett aren’t doing it, I’m just saying figuretively. I think Mannning will be a good player down the road, but he needs to add some serious bulk if he’s going to play on the field. But that’s just what i’ve seen I also notice that our LB’s aren’t hitting these RB’s good enough. I remember looking back and I can recall always having a LB or DB that would lay some wood on the field so to speak I don’t see that with this team this year. I can go back as far as Ben Taylor he was a hardnosed LB who was going to make contact I know that the game has changed and I’m not a old timer I’m only 25 so I can only go back but so far at least as much as I can remember.
I care to hear other fan’s thoughts on this. and by the way great story writeup Justin.
Thanks man!
Sorry for asking so many question, but I know Exum is new to the CB position, but why is his open field tackiling so bad? He’s 6’0 219 pounds, but he plays completely different from what I would assume him to play like by just looking at him. He reminds me of Deion Sanders when he celebrates and stuff but it means nothing when your not taking care of business on the field. He might be a tad overrated because even though he’s a athlete, but I haven’t seen him do anything since he’s been here not to say he’s a non-contributer, but he’s seems lost in big games and now that he’s a DB he’s grabbing attention of the fans for all the wrong reasons such as penalties. I hope he can work on his technique this season and comeback next year more prepared.
The best way to answer that question is to attach Andy Bitter’s most recent blog: http://hamptonroads.com/2012/10/agitated-foster-backs-his-defense-says-execution-few-plays-blame-loss
Our DBs are taught to run through tackles but if you take a poor angle you can get beat. That’s what happened on that one busted coverage play that went for a touchdown. Cole blew the coverage and Exum took a poor angle to make a tackle. Just poor execution by the defense.
I think the more “bothersome” aspect of this is that if you look at Cincinnatti’s recruitment ratings, stability of the staff, and other program strengths, we should be head-and-shoulders above their program. Yet, once again, we lose to what appears to be a much better prepared, yet “inferior” team. Pittsburgh is an identical scenario.
The Cincinnati players just played harder than ours did. Pittsburgh just punched our guys right in the mouth and our guys fell over like a UVA frat boy after a 6-pack of Zima. I was hoping the addition of some younger coaches to the staff would have pumped some energy into the team somewhere but I’m not seeing it.
Maybe the coaches and players need to be shocked with a defibrillator before the games to get their hearts going. Because I haven’t seen any heart on the field.
I had a flashback today to the VT homecoming game where Temple came back and won. So embarassing.
Good write up Justin. As per the recent discussions/debates this weekend, I still think the offensive line is more of an issue, but a lot of these recruiting misses have certainly hurt the depth, especially on the back end of the defense as you pointed out.
Of course if we were sustaining more drives, the defense wouldn’t be on the field near as much and would be fresher in the 4th quarter as well
I’ve thought about the offensive line thing and don’t get me wrong, they need to be better. But, there are a lot of OL units struggling in college football. I don’t know if we’re just in a period where the defensive line has gotten bigger, stronger, and faster or the quality of offensive linemen coming out of high school is just at an all time low or what.
The funny thing is, we’re 60th in sacks allowed this year. Not great but not terrible. We’ve allowed 9 sacks through five games. Alabama is 81st with 11 sacks allowed in five games. LSU is tied with Alabama. South Carolina is 89th, Oklahoma is 96th, and Florida is 104th. So, why are teams who do recruit a lot better than us sucking so much in pass protection? I honestly don’t know. Then you have a team like Tennessee who is 4th and has only given up 2 sacks this year.
I know there are a lot of factors that go into that one particular stat (coaching, scheme, QB mobility, etc) but to look at Alabama, who recruits only 4 and 5 star OLs and see they’re struggling just as much is surprising.
does anyone remember 2010? I know we want to forget about it, but the good news is that this sort of thing isn’t uncommon at VT. I believe the latest recruiting classes are the start to something great at VT. However, we may have to deal with a few mediocre years to get these talented guys in and get them the necessary work to shine. I honestly think the slow starts are due to play calling. The play calling is atrocious to start the games. O’Cain (or Stinespring) whoever is calling the plays tends to find plays that start to work late in the 2nd quarter and into the 2nd half. We’ve seen this for several years now. They need to take notice of the plays that work and start off with them in the game instead of waiting. We can blame the Defense for losing the Cincinnati game if you wish, but I thought they played great. I was even pleasantly surprised with Michael Cole. Those guys played hard. When you have young guys out there you are going to have this. I honestly think the biggest liability on Defense right now is Antone Exum. I like the kid, but I really think he and Kyle need to switch sides as it’s been suggested. He was getting manhandled. Also, I read online by Aaron McFarling I believe that they needed to use Marcus Davis the same way Cincinnati was using the kid that was manhandling Antone (I forget his name). I honestly think that VT can right the ship, but they have to find their niche and what works on offense. I believe we have all seen what works and they show flashes of brilliance. I think Logan Thomas can be great, but he is not totally free of blame. He wasn’t this bad through 5 games last year. I honestly wonder if something isn’t wrong with his shoulder or whatever it was in preseason. He is having balls sail on him like crazy. He overthrew several receivers on numerous occasions on Saturday. Defenses are going to start picking those off eventually because of his overthrows. He shows flashes of brilliance as well, but he has not been the Logan Thomas that we saw at the end of the year last year.
I believe that they can make a comeback, I will stand by that. I believe the coaching staff may have the ability to light a fire under these kids. We will see though. I am hoping for another 2010 and they can run the table. I am optimistically wishing for this as I know as bad as they have played to date it is not very likely.
Let’s GO HOKIES!!!!!
Yea, I guess the defensive backfield shuffle that once looked like a good move has failed. Fuller has played well but was hurt for most of the game. Exum still can master the other corner in time but Bonner is not a safety,,,he is terrible! Lost in space! Cole plays hard but is often out of position too. Jarred is playing into the safety position and will also get better in time. One of the things Cincy did to us in the hurry up was they did not allow for the Van Dyke substitution for Cole to happen. When Van Dyke got into the game he was over thinking his coverage assignment and not flying to the ball. I think it should be just the opposite…RVD should be in on first down and substitute Dole as a nickleback…
I also think we need to have more confidence in the true freshman. The days are over when it takes Freshman a couple of years to develop. Some HS teams can play and beat small college teams with no problem….Johnny Manziel, Keith Marshall, Todd Gurley, Amari Cooper, Denzel Nkemdiche, Dorial Green-Beckham, Jalen Mills are all key contributors to their teams as freshman this year and I am leaving out a lot more. Meanwhile as usual our number one rated recruit is being redshirted…I think we still lose players because of the 75 percent redshirt strategy. I know we are changing that to some extent but we are still behind the rest of the football all world in developing young players!!
But the counter argument to that is Boise State who very rarely plays a true freshman unless injuries occur. Also, there are a lot of freshmen who come to college who just aren’t ready. Like you didn’t mention any OL and very few linebackers and safeties play as a freshmen. Just because those positions take time to learn and often you can’t rely on natural talent to get the job done.
I think our coaches do trust our true freshmen but Donaldven Manning played two plays on Saturday. On those two plays he gave up 2 catches for about 50 yards and a touchdown. Sometimes freshmen just aren’t ready to play and I think that’s one of our problems right now. We have guys that are going to be good but they’re just stuck in neutral right now.
What puzzles me is that Exum actually led the team in tackles last year with 89 tackes from the safety spot. We then move him to corner….he tackling skills seem to have regressed. He missed a huge tackle on the RB swing pass that went for 76 yards in the Cincy game….he had the guy lined up and just whiffed. I just can’t help but wonder if he would be better off at safety. I like what I see from Jarret, but I don’t know about Bonner as a safety. Maybe going with Fuller, Bonner and Manning at corner and leaving Jarrett and Exum at safety would have been better. I will never give up on the Hokies and I do think they will improve this season and turn things around. I think we can still pull a rabbit out of the hat and stun FSU or Clemson…you never know. We are also deadly on Thursday night games…FSU has to come into Lane Stadium on a Thursday night….Lets hope things start clicking soon and the team flips the light switch.
Apparently Foster thinks Exum “Played his nuts off” this past weekend….
http://network.yardbarker.com/all_sports/article_external/bud_foster_says_cb_played_his_nuts_off/11864467