Most folks will tell you, and they’d be right, that star rankings will not determine the development and skills of a player once he moves into the world of college football. The examples of this logic are much easier to see once the player moves into the NFL because “draft bust” coverage often appears in the sports media. However, I believe that there is at least some reason to pay attention to these ratings. Look at the past classes of USC, Texas, Ohio State, Florida, and Alabama. Yep, their recruiting classes have been stellar.
Often boasting 10 or more 4 star recruits per class, all of these teams have at least one or more National Championships in the last decade. As Hokie fans, we are only afforded the luxury of three or four of these “highly rated” players per year, generally. Yet, schools like Virginia Tech and Boise State seem to do more with less (Though there is little doubt that VT tends to get more talent than BSU on a year to year basis). Unlike Miami, for example, who has won an NC in the last ten years, but has produced far less than one might expect with the talent that they’ve been able to reel in over the last 5 years.
Cody Grimm walked on to one of the best defensive teams in all of CF and came out being dubbed by Bud Foster as one of the best players he’s ever coached. Who knew? The scouts sure didn’t. Macho Harris came into VT as a very highly touted DB and played every year before graduating. He was then drafted by the Philadelphia Eagles where he received significant PT in his first year.
The scouts said he was a premier player and he was. It worked out well. By the same token, there are plenty of guys who don’t live up to the hype. It happens to every program. The point is: sometimes the scouts are right, and sometimes the scouts are wrong. You could almost flip a coin. Cody Grimm was an anomaly, while players who fail to meet expectations can be found across the board, year after year.
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With 4 players on Boise State’s offensive line that came into college as two star players (LT Nate Potter, LG Will Lawrence, C Thomas Byrd, and RG Kevin Sapien), each receiving little national attention, is it ludicrous to believe that John Graves and Steven Friday aren’t going to have some success in early September? Are all of these Boise linemen the type that turns out to far exceed their initial talent rating? No doubt that great coaching can transform what would normally be perceived as an average bunch of guys into a cohesive unit, but I have to believe that we’re not going to be facing a terribly formidable offensive line
The receiving corps has proven itself to be very good at Boise. Both Austin Pettis and Titus Young are very talented guys and they both came in as a three star recruits. Couple that with an accurate Kellen Moore and it’s certainly a potent mixture. But are they really as good as Boise State’s offense seems to be? Could other 3 star recruits have had the same success if they played for Boise in the WAC? My guess is, probably. My question is: are we going to use our talent as well as Boise does? I’m looking at you Mr. Stinespring.
Jeron Johnson, one of Boise’s safeties and a key player, was a 2 star guy. Is he going to follow in the footsteps of Kyle Wilson and make it to the draft? Has 2 star caliber Winston Venable since become a truly great defender? Who are these linebackers? Who is going to surprise us on September 6th ? We’ll have to wait and see.
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{ 4 comments… read them below or add one }
Good article!!
I think there are some areas of the country that are vastly underrated when it comes to producing talent. If you look at the Rivals 100, how many of those kids come from California, Texas, and Florida? In this years edition, 41 of the top 100 players are from those three states. So do those states produce much better talent than say Virginia and North Carolina or are those states just better at getting those kid’s names out there because they’re viewed as “talent rich” states?
There are over 3000 prospects that will either accept a football scholarship or will walk-on at D1 or FCS level colleges. It’s hard for five or six scouts at each of these “Recruiting Services” to accurately measure all of these kids. In fact, one reason why some of the Hokies past recruiting classes were ranked so low was because there wasn’t adequate film for most Rivals analyst to give a bump to some of our 2 star or 3 star prospects. Since Brian Mohr has taken over at Rivals, he’s done a better job at getting film from coaches and a bunch of our players have received huge recruiting ranking bumps because of it.
I think the rankings should be taken with a grain of salt but it still provides for some bragging rights for fans who do follow recruiting. There’s nothing wrong with getting excited over a 5 star recruit but honestly, nobody knows how these kids will do until they get into the college program.
The NFL is far superior in talent evaluation than the recruiting services and it’s very interesting to see how they differ in their judgement of talent from the ACC region.
The recruiting websites worship the state of Florida.
Rivals has 38 players from FL. high schools in their 250 and only 15 from Va-NC.
ESPN has 38 FL. h.s players in their 150 and only 10 from the Va-NC. combo.
The NFL is much higher on Virgina and North Carolina.
According to a USA Today article, the state of Florida produced 541 draftees from 1988 to 2007 whereas Virginia had 165 players selected and North Carolina 160.
An article by groundreport.com shows that in the 2010 draft Florida had 34 players selected and
Virginia and North Carolina had 12 and 10 respectively.
Here’s the comparison of the FL to Va-N.C ratios.
Rivals 2.53
ESPN 3.80
NFL 88-07 1.66
NFL 2010 1.55
The recruiting services are very near sighted outside a few prime states such as Florida.
If Virginia Tech can simply get the lion’s share of the elite talent from Virginia they’ll be very strong.
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Thanks for the reply Justin. Truly, I was unaware that there were so few scouts working for these sites. That task seems largely impossible for just 5 or 6 guys. There’s clearly an opportunity for improvement if that’s the case. However, as VT fans, we HAVE to take recruiting with a grain of salt because we aren’t one of the big recruit getters and we still succeed. But there are plenty of teams who can’t say the same. Meaning, their recruiting ends up looking alot like their end of season ranking. I’ve heard people talk about the Blacksburg market and how it’s tough to sell, but I don’t completely buy that. I mean, Ann Arbor, MI? They’ve had some pretty good players up there and we all know that Ann Arbor isn’t the sexiest city in America. I think recruiting is all about perception. One thing VT has going for it is it’s reputation as a consistently good program that has no trouble turning players into gameday starters in the NFL. We just have to get that Crystal Football if we want to take the next step in our perception.
Rivals does a lot better job especially since they do rely on input from their team sites (like Hokiehaven.com) and high school sites (like virginiapreps.com). Scout really relies on about six national analysts who have their own section of the country to cover. The problem with that is, each analyst only spends a a few weeks out on the road a year at camps and certain high school games. If some of say VT’s recruits aren’t at those camps or games then he’ll never see them.
Honestly, I go by the VT coaches and in-state offers. If VT goes down to GA and beats out both UGA and GT for a kid, then I’m guessing that kid is pretty good even if he’s only a 3 star. Same with VA kids. If a VA kid has both a UVA and VT offer, I’m guessing he has some talent.
Also you’re right about Blacksburg, it is a tough sell because of it’s location but only a few major universities are located near major cities. At least Blacksburg has grown up a lot in the past and Roanoke isn’t too far away.