There’s just 26 days left until the Hokies kickoff their 2010 season against Boise State in Washington D.C. Today, we will examine the Boise State Broncos in a statistical manner and compare them to Virginia Tech as well. I love statistics. They are largely meaningless in the eyes of the coaches but for fans, we eat them up and use them in almost every sports conversation.
However, in the grand scheme of things, all stats are meaningless once the players take the field. How a team did against the 30th best offense is irrelevant but since we honestly have nothing else to do for the next four weeks, we might as well break this thing down anyway, or as my old music teacher would say; “for funzies”.
The general breakdown (pictured above) should give you an idea of the strengths of each team. The Hokies are a primarily run-first offense but will throw the ball when needing to. Boise State is a very balanced offense that uses the short passing game to help open up the run. The only real difference between the two teams is the strength of schedule but that will factor in more in the next section.
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Boise State Offense
The gaudy numbers will certainly impress poll voters and your average college football fan but when you take a closer look at it, Boise State played some terrible defenses in 2009. If you take away TCU, that average balloons up to 88.0 in total defense and 88.4 in scoring defense.
Against the two BCS caliber teams that BSU faced last season, their offense struggled, scoring just 19 points and 17 points in each game. TCU had the number one defense in the nation last year and perhaps that game offers the best view of what the Hokies will face in 2010. It was a neutral site game and Tech’s defense, although not on TCU’s level from last year, should be very similar to that TCU defense in 2010.
Boise State Defense
I’ve heard a lot of chatter from Boise State sites and message boards that Boise has a great defense. Honestly, if you look at that in a statically manner, then yes they have a very good one. You could also look at it and say well they held the four top 25 offenses they played to 102 points, which isn’t the mark of a great defense.
The problem with Boise’s defense is that they played great at a home but they struggled on the road. Yes they played well against TCU and yes they played well against Oregon. However, they surrendered over 300 rushing yards to Fresno State and allowed LA Tech who has the 64th best offense to score 35 points on them.
To put it plainly for fellow Virginia Tech fans, this Boise State defense is good but it's just not on the same level as Alabama's was last year.
Virginia Tech Offense
Boise State put up some great offensive numbers but they were largely against average or worse defensive teams. The Hokies put up average numbers but they played three defenses in the top 10 and six in the top 30. Let’s break this down.
Against those three top defenses, the Hokies only mustered 57 points. Against the three other top 30 teams, they scored 116 points. From this standpoint it seems like Tech struggled last year with the bigger and more physical defenses like Alabama but did better against the smaller and quicker defenses of Tennessee and Miami.
Boise State’s defense is physical up front but they aren’t quite as big as UNC’s or Alabama’s in 2009. If anything, Boise State favors Tennessee, especially on the defensive line, which is good for Virginia Tech.
Virginia Tech Defense
Last year was probably the worst defense the Hokies have had since 2003. Statistically it was fine, especially since Bud Foster churned out another top 15 defense. However, there were weaknesses that were exploited in a few of our bigger games. This year, the defense will be young but those weaknesses have exited the program.
If we look at the 2009 season pictured above, the Hokies played some terrible offenses and no doubt benefited from that down the stretch. The ACC as a whole was terrible offensively (minus GT, FSU, and Miami). Tech did hold all but four of it's opponents under 20 points and allowed a max of 34 points last season. If that is any indication on this year's defense, I wouldn't expect this game to be very high scoring. First one to 27 may win.
What Does It All Mean?
Stats really are meaningless but they can give you some information if they are shown in the right context. Too me, it seems like the Hokies are the more talented team, they do have the better defense, and they have more playmakers.
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Boise State however, has the ability to beat anybody anywhere at anytime. They’ve proven in the past that they can go on the road and win a football game. The Broncos also boast the better quarterback in Kellen Moore and a better offensive line.
So at this point, it’s just too close to call. Obviously, if there is an injury in either team’s camp that could drastically alter this game. Let’s just hope both teams can make in through fall camp largely unscathed so both teams can put on a show on September 6th.
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{ 2 comments… read them below or add one }
Interesting article from a BSU fan…I’m looking forward to the game with you guys and I think it will be a good one….but I hope that it won’t be too good from your perspective.
Here’s to the best game of opening week of college football and the teams can play w/o injuries. Cheers!
The article says if there is an injury between now and the game, then this might effect the outcome of the game. On the Boise State side I don’t think that is true unless it is Kellen Moore. Boise State has significant depth at every position. Also if it is hot and humid at the game I don’t think that will be a factor either as Boise State will just keep running guys in.